【经济学人精读——全球房市低迷结束了吗？（上）】

本文由长春朗阁培训中心整理发布，欢迎联系预约试听

很多国内的朋友看到这篇题目可能觉得无法感同身受。国内的房市最近好像比较低迷。但是身处澳大利亚的小编我本人，确实觉得房市还是火热。澳洲连续加息很多次了，现在的房贷利息近6%算是很高的了，但是市场上的房源缺很少，导致房价依旧很高。

这篇经济学人我会分为两篇来精读：第一部分是一些数据和事实的呈现，第二部分会是一些原因的分析、解析。今天的第一部分有很多俗语，不容错过哦！

Is the global housing slump over?

全球房地产市场低迷已结束吗？

Why rising interest rates have not yet triggered property pandemonium

为什么利率上升尚未引发房地产恐慌

In Australia house prices have risen for the past three months. In America a widely watched index of housing values has risen by 1.6% from its low in January, and housebuilders’ share prices have done twice as well as the overall stockmarket. In the euro area the property market looks steady. “[M]ost of the drag from housing on gdp growth from now on should be marginal,” wrote analysts at jpmorgan Chase, a bank, in a recent report about America. “[W]e believe the peak negative drag from the recent housing-market slump to private consumption is likely behind us,” wrote wonks at Goldman Sachs, another bank, about South Korea.

澳大利亚的房价在过去三个月内上涨。在美国，一个广受关注的住房价值指数较1月份的低点上涨了1.6%，房地产建筑商的股价表现也比整体股市好两倍。在欧元区，房地产市场看起来相对稳定。摩根大通银行的分析师在最近一份关于美国的报告中写道：“从现在开始，住房对国内生产总值增长的拖累大部分应该是边际的。” 高盛集团等另一家银行的专家也在关于韩国的报告中写道：“我们认为最近的住房市场低迷对私人消费的负面拖累已经过去了。”

Slump - a significant and sustained decline or decrease in a particular sector or market, often characterized by reduced activity, lower prices, and decreased demand.

Trigger - initiate or set off a particular event or action. In the context of the passage, it refers to the cause or catalyst for property pandemonium or chaos.

Pandemonium - a state of wild and chaotic disorder or confusion. It suggests a highly tumultuous and disruptive situation in the property market.

A widely watched index of … - is closely monitored and observed by a large number of people, often investors, analysts, and experts. It implies its significance and influence in assessing the state of the market.

The overall stockmarket

In the euro area

Steady - stable, consistent, or not prone to significant fluctuations

Marginal - minimal, minor, or barely noticeable

The peak negative drag - highest or most severe negative influence or impact caused by the recent hothe highest or most severe negative influence or impact caused by the recent housing-market slump on a particular aspect, such as private consumption or economic growth. It implies that the worst effects of the slump have already been experienced and are expected to improve or diminish moving forward.using-market slump on a particular aspect, such as private consumption or economic growth

Economists had expected a house-price bloodbath. In March 2022, the month that the Federal Reserve started raising rates to combat inflation, the average value of a house in a rich country was 41% higher than five years earlier. Prices had bounced back from the financial crisis of 2007-09, then surged during the covid-19 pandemic. Since then central-bank policy rates have risen by more than three percentage points on average globally, making mortgages costlier and slowing the economy.

经济学家曾预期会出现房价大跌。2022年3月，美联储开始提高利率以应对通胀时，富裕国家的房屋平均价值比五年前上涨了41%。房价从2007年至2009年的金融危机反弹，然后在新冠疫情期间大幅上涨（见图表）。此后，全球各地央行的政策利率平均上升了三个百分点以上，使得抵押贷款成本更高，经济增长放缓。

Bloodbath - a situation of extreme violence, destruction, or severe losses. In the context of the passage, it suggests that economists had anticipated a significant and drastic decline in house prices, potentially leading to financial turmoil or substantial financial losses.

Combat inflation - taking actions or implementing measures to address or reduce the impact of inflation, which is the general increase in prices of goods and services over time

Bounce back - to recover, rebound, or return to a previous position or state after a setback or decline.

On average

Making mortgages costlier - the increase in interest rates has led to higher borrowing costs for obtaining mortgages. It implies that it is now more expensive for individuals to borrow money for purchasing homes.

Slowing the economy - It indicates that the rise in interest rates and the resulting increase in mortgage costs have contributed to a deceleration or reduction in the pace of economic growth.

Global house prices have certainly come off the boil. They are 3% below their recent peak, or 8-10% lower once adjusted for inflation. This is in line with the average correction since the late 19th century. Yet this episode is different because it followed a boom during the pandemic when prices rose at their fastest rate of all time. The upshot is that real house prices remain miles above the level of 2019. Many millennials and Gen-Zers, who had dreamt that a crash would allow them to buy their first house, are no doubt disappointed.

全球房价确实出现了回落。与最近的峰值相比，它们下跌了3%，或者在通胀调整后下跌了8-10%。这与自19世纪末以来的平均修正相一致。然而，这一事件的不同之处在于它紧随着疫情期间房价以史上最快的速度上涨的繁荣时期。结果是实际房价仍远高于2019年水平。许多千禧一代和Z一代曾梦想着房价崩盘会让他们有机会购买首套房，他们无疑会感到失望。

Come off the boll - to cool down or decrease in intensity. In the context of the passage, it suggests that global house prices have decreased or cooled off from their peak levels.

In line with - is consistent or in accordance with a particular trend or expectation. It suggests that a certain situation or data point aligns with the general pattern or expectation being discussed.

The upshot - the final result or consequence of a series of events or actions

remain

A crash - a sudden and severe decline or collapse in value, prices, or market activity. In the passage, it refers to the expectation or hope of many millennials and Gen-Zers that a sharp drop in house prices would occur, enabling them to purchase their first home at a lower cost.

During a typical global housing slump some countries have a torrid time. After the financial crisis Irish house prices fell by half. American house prices dropped by 20%. This time the underperformers are doing better. In San Francisco house prices are a tenth off their peak, as tech types have decamped to Florida and Texas. Yet they have stopped falling—and the average house will still set you back over $1.1m.

在典型的全球房地产市场低迷期间，一些国家遭受了严重打击。在金融危机之后，爱尔兰的房价下跌了一半，美国的房价下降了20%。而这一次表现不佳的地区表现更好。旧金山的房价较峰值时期下降了十分之一，科技界人士已经搬到佛罗里达和德克萨斯。然而，它们已经停止下跌，而且一套普通的房屋仍然需要超过110万美元。

Have a torrid time - to experience a difficult, challenging, or unfavorable period or situation. It suggests that certain countries or regions faced significant hardships or struggles in the context of the housing market.

Underperformers - refers to entities or individuals that have performed below expectations or standards. In the passage, it likely refers to regions or markets that did not meet anticipated levels of growth or performance in the housing sector.

A tenth off their peak - the current value or level of something is 10% lower than its highest point or peak. It indicates a decline or decrease of around 10% from the highest recorded value or level.

Decamped - to leave or depart quickly, often with a sense of urgency. In the passage, it suggests that individuals or groups, such as tech types, have relocated or moved away from a specific location or area due to certain reasons, potentially affecting the housing market in that region.

Set sb back - to cost or require someone to pay a significant amount of money for something. It implies that an individual or entity had to spend a substantial sum of money for a particular item or property.

In Australia, where in 2020-21 house prices went bananas, they have fallen by 7%. But, as a recent auction hinted, the market is recovering. A two-bedroom bungalow in Double Bay, a greying suburb on Sydney’s harbour, recently opened at A$4m ($2.7m). It represents, the auctioneer declares, an “outstanding opportunity to come along and add a lot of value”. Translation: it needs some work. That does not deter the well-heeled crowd which jostles outside its gate—the bidding is frantic. The gavel finally drops at over A$6m.

在澳大利亚，2020-21年房价暴涨，现已下跌了7%。但是，正如最近的一次拍卖所示，市场正在复苏。位于悉尼港的一个日渐老化的郊区Double Bay的一幢两居室平房最近以400万澳元（270万美元）的起拍价出现。拍卖师宣布，这是一个“出色的增值机会”。换句话说，它需要一些装修。这并没有阻止富人云集在它的门外争夺竞拍——竞价激烈。最终槌下价超过600万澳元。

Went bananas - It is an idiomatic expression that means to become extremely excited, enthusiastic, or out of control. In the context of the passage, it suggests that in Australia, house prices experienced a significant surge or rapid increase.

Hinted - suggest or imply something indirectly or subtly

Bungalow - a small, single-story house, often with a veranda or porch. It describes a specific type of residential property.

Well-heeled crowd - to a group of people who are wealthy, affluent, or financially well-off. It implies that the individuals present at the location or event have a high social and economic standing.

Jostles outside its gate - indicates a chaotic or crowded situation with individuals vying for position or trying to gain entry.

Frantic - a state of extreme urgency, excitement, or agitation. In the passage, it implies that the bidding or activity related to the auction is intense, energetic, or frenzied.

The gravel drops at ...

By contrast with previous housing slumps, there is no hint that lower house prices have created financial contagion. Banks do not seem worried about a surge in bad mortgages. They have fewer risky loans and have not binged on dodgy subprime securities. In New Zealand mortgage arrears have risen, but remain below their pre-pandemic norm. In America delinquencies on single-family mortgages recently hit a post-financial-crisis low. In Canada the share of mortgages in arrears is close to an all-time low.

与以往的房地产低迷相比，目前没有迹象表明房价下降已经引发了金融蔓延。银行似乎并不担心不良抵押贷款激增。它们的风险贷款较少，并且没有大量投资于可疑的次贷证券。在新西兰，按揭逾期率有所上升，但仍低于疫情前的水平。在美国，单户住房按揭的违约率最近达到金融危机后的最低点。在加拿大，逾期按揭贷款的比例接近历史最低水平。

Financial contagion - the spread or transmission of financial problems or risks from one entity or sector to others. It suggests the potential for negative financial effects to spread and impact a broader range of institutions or markets.

A surge in bad mortgages

Fewer risky loans

Not binged on dodgy subprime securities - there hasn't been a reckless or excessive investment in questionable or high-risk subprime securities.

Arrears - It refers to unpaid or overdue payments, typically in the context of loans or debts. It indicates that individuals or entities have fallen behind on their scheduled payments.

Post-financial-crisis

Nor do property woes appear to be throttling the wider economy. Weaker housing investment is dragging on economic growth, but the effect is small. In previous housing busts the number of builders declined sharply long before the rest of the labour market weakened. Yet today there is still red-hot demand for them. In South Korea construction employment has dropped slightly from its pandemic highs but now seems to be growing again. In America it is rising by 2.5% a year, in line with the long-run average. In New Zealand construction vacancies are well above historical levels.

房地产困境似乎也没有对整体经济产生明显压制作用。住房投资的疲软对经济增长产生一定拖累，但影响不大。在以往的住房危机中，建筑商数量在整个劳动力市场疲软之前就急剧下降。然而，如今对他们仍然存在火热的需求。在韩国，建筑业就业人数从疫情高峰时期稍有下降，但现在似乎又在增长。美国的建筑业就业人数每年增长2.5%，与长期平均水平相符。新西兰的建筑业职位空缺远高于历史水平。

Property woes - refers to difficulties or challenges faced within the property market or real estate sector. It implies unfavorable or problematic conditions affecting property prices, sales, or investments.

Throttling - restrict or hinder the progress or growth of something. In the context of the passage, it suggests that property-related issues are limiting or impeding certain aspects of the housing market or the broader economy.

Dragging on - have a persistent or prolonged negative impact or influence on something. In the passage, it suggests that certain factors or circumstances are causing a continued and undesirable effect on the housing market or the overall economy.

Busts - periods of economic downturn, contraction, or decline, specifically related to the housing market. It implies a significant drop or collapse in property prices, sales, or market activity.

Red-hot demand - an intense or highly active demand for a particular product or service. In the context of the passage, it suggests that there is strong, enthusiastic, or fervent demand for properties or real estate.

Be well above historical levels

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